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Clean Technology Forecast for Australia to 2050

July 12th, 2010

Australian Cleantech has released a report titled "Prosperous Sustainability" which forecasts the development of energy technologies in Australia up to 2050.

The main findings of the report include:

  • Current wind technology will maintain a high level of activity through to about 2015, after which it starts to be replaced by second generation wind technologies. There will be no further installation of current technology wind after 2022.
    Second generation wind may consist to vertical axis or Darrieus turbines or other improvements on the current large scale horizontal axis turbines. This technology is forecast to take over from the existing wind technology progressively from 2015, increasing in activity through to about 2025 but reducing to low level of ongoing activity by 2035.
  • Small-scale solar rooftop is forecast to increase in activity through to 2012 driven by feed-in tariffs. It will then reduce, finally becoming obsolete by 2020 as other solar technologies become more economic.
    Building integrated solar is forecast to continue to grow through to the end of the forecast period as applications continue to be extended from roofs and windows to a greater variety of surfaces.
  • Large scale solar concentrating is not predicted roll out until 2018 but it will be to a major component of the industry by 2050, although down from its peak in the late 2020s.
  • Geothermal is forecast to start to become significant from 2015 with an increase in the roll out in the 2030s as technology improvements increase its efficiency.
  • Wave and tidal power are expected to grow through to about 2030, after which they start to decline in importance as other technologies, with fewer mechanical parts, emerge as cheaper options. By 2050, they are seen as only having niche application in some  specific geographic situations.
  • First generation biofuels is expected to have steady activity on a global basis through to 2012, after which it will go into decline as it is replaced by gen-2 biofuels using algae and cellulosic technologies. Once these technologies have been proven, they are forecast to experience growth through to 2025 and then to remain steady for 10 years before going into decline with only niche uses of biofuels by 2050.
  • Energy efficiency and green building are forecast to be a major part of the solution and to continue to grow and innovate throughout the entire period with a continuing focus on reducing energy requirements and using more sustainable materials.
  • The smart grid is forecast to expand throughout the period with large capital projects as old grids are progressively upgraded. Widespread roll-out will begin 2012 and will significantly expand in the 2020s. There are likely to be many iterations of what is considered ‘smart’ in a grid and it is only towards the end of the forecast period that it might become fully interactive.
  • The major roll out of battery electric vehicles is expected to commence in 2012 and continue to grow throughout the forecast period.
  • Carbon equestration is forecast to have only modest activity throughout the period driven by the need for carbon offsetting projects. It is not forecast to grow as many of the other technologies will start to become cost competitive and there will consequently be a decreasing level of carbon to be offset.
  • Hydrogen, nuclear fusion and other new technologies may become significant parts of the equation after 2030.

A copy of the report may be purchased from www.auscleantech.com.au/ACT_Reports.html

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Australia Investigating US Biodiesel Dumping

June 23rd, 2010

The Australian Customs and Border Protection Service is investigating a complaint by Biodiesel Producers Ltd that American biodiesel is being dumped onto the Australian market, undercutting local producers.

The US subsidises biodiesel, which is commonly made from food crops there. Last year the European Union imposed anti-dumping import duties on biodiesel from the US.

Chris Attwood, general manager of Biodiesel Producers, said that "We are hoping the Australian government will prevent imported biodiesel from, if you like, double dipping on subsidies since they are getting a subsidy in the U.S. and then they are arriving here in Australia and also getting a subsidy under the cleaner fuels grant."

Biodiesel producers in the US get a tax break worth about 30 cents a litre while Australia’s cleaner fuels grant provides a tax break of about 40 cents a litre.

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Holden to Invest in Ethanol

December 10th, 2008

General Motors Holden is planning a major investment in ethanol production in Australia.

Holden’s Managing Director, Mark Reuss, says the company is in talks with the American firm, Coskata, to establish Australia’s first plant to produce cellulosic ethanol, made from non-edible plant material, for use in motor fuels.

The development of the plant will coincide with Holden’s production of the first locally-build cars to run on E85 (fuel made up of 85 per cent ethanol). E10 fuel is already widely available and can be used in many modern cars.

According to Mark Reuss, "Australia could lead the world in researching and developing vehicles powered by a range of alternative fuels. It (ethanol) is not the only answer but things like LPG, ethanol, maybe CNG (compressed natural gas) here, with the resources that Australia has, I think this country could really lead that."

The company also plans to import the Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid electric car to Australia by 2012.

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Aussie Researchers Produce Crude Oil from Waste

February 5th, 2008

The CSIRO and Monash University have developed a chemical process that converts cheap, green waste into stable crude oil.

"We’ve been able to create a concentrated bio-crude which is much more stable than that achieved elsewhere in the world", said Dr Steven Loffler of CSIRO Forest Biosciences. The process makes it practical to produce the bio-crude from low-value waste, such as forest thinnings, crop residue and waste paper on site, rather than transport bulky waste to a central processing plant. The bio-crude can then taken to a refinery for further processing to produce high-value chemicals and bio-fuels.

The products being converted are renewable, greenhouse-gas neutral and are waste products and not food crops.

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