The Australian Department of Climate Change has released the results of a study of the effects of rising sea levels as a result of climate change on Australia’s coastal dwellings and infrastructure.
The modelling assumed a sea level increase of 1.1 metres, which it describes as the “plausible worst case”, by 2100.
The key findings of the report were:
- Between 157,000 and 247,600 properties were identified as potentially exposed to inundation with a sea-level rise of 1.1 metres.
- Nearly 39,000 properties, located within 110 metres of “soft” shorelines, are at risk from accelerated erosion.
- The current value of buildings at risk from inundation is between $41 and $63 billion.
- Infrastructure considered to be at risk because it is located within 200 metres of a shoreline includes 269 police, fire, ambulance and emergency service facilities and 75 hospitals and health services facilities.
- Eight electricity and water treatment facilities are regarded as being at risk.

On a state-by state basis, the study’s findings were:
New South Wales
- Between 40,800 and 62,400 residential buildings are at risk of inundation with a 1.1 metre sea level combined with a 1-in-100 year storm;
- The areas with the greatest risk are Lake Macquarie, Wyong, Gosford, Wollongong, Shoalhaven and Rockdale.
- The areas of Sydney with greatest vulnerability are Rockdale/Botany Bay and Narrabeen/Collaroy.
- The area of Rockdale/Botany Bay at risk includes Sydney Airport.
Victoria
- Between 27,600 and 44,600 residential buildings are at risk of inundation with a 1.1 metre sea level combined with a 1-in-100 year storm;
- The areas of greatest risk are Kingston, Hobson’s Bay, Greater Geelong, Wellington and Port Phillip.
- One of the most vulnerable areas in Australia is the Gippsland Lakes/Ninety Mile Beach area.
- The townships of Lakes Entrance an Port Fairy are particularly vulnerable.
- In Melbourne, the St Kilda area, including the Marina and Lona Park are at risk.
Queensland
- Between 35,900 and 56,900 residential buildings are at risk of inundation with a 1.1 metre sea level;
- The areas of greatest risk are Moreton Bay, Mackay, the Gold Coast, Fraser Coast, Bundaberg and the Sunshine Coast;
- The Queensland analysis did not include the effect of storm surges. A 1-in-100 year storm tide, combined with a 1.1 metre sea level rise, would effect more than 2,500 buildings in Cairns, including Calvary Hospital and the police headquarters.
South Australia
- Between 35,900 and 56,900 residential buildings are at risk of inundation with a 1.1 metre sea level;
- Charles Sturt and Port Adelaide/Enfield are the areas most at risk
- Small coastal towns on the Yorke Peninsula are particularly at risk. Approximately 80% of Fisherman’s Bay is at high risk.
Western Australia and the Northern Territory
- Between 35,900 and 56,900 residential buildings in Western Australia and 190 in the Northern Territory are at risk of inundation with a 1.1 metre sea level;
- Busselton, Mandurah, Rockingham and Bunbury have the most properties at risk;
- Increased tropical cyclones pose a risk in the Broome-Exmouth region.
Tasmania
- Between 8,700 and 11,600 residential buildings are at risk of inundation with a 1.1 metre sea level combined with a 1-in-100 year storm;
- Clarence, the Central Coast, Break O’Day and Waratah/Wynyard are most at risk;
- Compared with the rest of Australia, a large proportion of Tasmania’s coast is rocky or sandy shores backed by bedrock and is unlikely to suffer erosion.
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